Once Caldas
Primera A · 2026Once Caldas 1–0 Atlético Nacional · Primera A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Once Caldas won 1–0.
- Shots
- 17–13
- Shots on target
- 8–5
- Expected goals
- 1.43–1.47
- Possession
- 45%–55%
Full time
What the match recorded
Once Caldas beat Atletico Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Atletico Nacional): shots 17–13, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 1.43–1.47, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season
moderateOnce Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.2 goals/match | 1.63 goals/match | 1.36 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Once Caldas have a visible home split
moderateOnce Caldas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16.4 shots/match | 13.4 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record
moderateAtletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 13.4 shots/match | 16 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
| Shots against | 13.9 shots/match | 11.9 shots/match | 11.9 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
This match
Match statistics
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Once Caldas favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 11 · 1 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Once Caldas / Atlético Nacional
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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