PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Centenario

Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Pereira won 1–0.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
40
Expected goals
0.670.5
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Pereira beat Atletico Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Deportivo Pereira – Atletico Nacional): shots 13–10, shots on target 4–0, expected goals 0.67–0.5, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Atletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.28 shots/match ▲ShotsDeportivo Pereira · Atletico Nacional16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricDeportivo PereiraAtletico NacionalBaseline
Shots9.28 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atletico Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportivo Pereira have a visible home split

moderate

Deportivo Pereira's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.28 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match9.28 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsDeportivo Pereira 13 shots, Atlético Nacional 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots0 shotsDeportivo Pereira 4 shots, Atlético Nacional 0 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG0.5 xGDeportivo Pereira 0.67 xG, Atlético Nacional 0.5 xG
  • Possession46%54%Deportivo Pereira 46%, Atlético Nacional 54%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersDeportivo Pereira 5 corners, Atlético Nacional 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsDeportivo Pereira 10 fouls, Atlético Nacional 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsDeportivo Pereira 4 cards, Atlético Nacional 2 cards
  • Passes342 passes396 passesDeportivo Pereira 342 passes, Atlético Nacional 396 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%82%Deportivo Pereira 79%, Atlético Nacional 82%
  • Shots inside box8 shots3 shotsDeportivo Pereira 8 shots, Atlético Nacional 3 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksDeportivo Pereira 3 blocks, Atlético Nacional 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves3 savesDeportivo Pereira 0 saves, Atlético Nacional 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesDeportivo Pereira 3 offsides, Atlético Nacional 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Pereira favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 12 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Pereira18 matchesAtlético Nacional18 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.94 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 0.78 goals/match
0.76 xG/matchExpected goals15/18▲ 1.56 xG/match
9.28 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 16.2 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 6 shots/match
42.4%Possession18/18● 56.1%
2.5 corners/matchCorners18/18● 4.61 corners/match
3.29 cards/matchCards7/64 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo PereiraAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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