PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 1–0 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 1–0.

Shots
144
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
1.060.24
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellin beat Fortaleza FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Fortaleza FC): shots 14–4, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 1.06–0.24, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Independiente Medellin, Fortaleza FC.

3.09 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellin · Fortaleza FC3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FCBaseline
Rest days3.09 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Independiente Medellin have a visible home split

moderate

Independiente Medellin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Independiente Medellin's recent record differs from the season

weak

Independiente Medellin's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots4 shotsIndependiente Medellín 14 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 4 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotIndependiente Medellín 3 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.06 xG0.24 xGIndependiente Medellín 1.06 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 0.24 xG
  • Possession53%47%Independiente Medellín 53%, Fortaleza CEIF 47%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersIndependiente Medellín 6 corners, Fortaleza CEIF 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls16 foulsIndependiente Medellín 8 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsIndependiente Medellín 1 card, Fortaleza CEIF 2 cards
  • Passes374 passes335 passesIndependiente Medellín 374 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 335 passes
  • Pass accuracy84%79%Independiente Medellín 84%, Fortaleza CEIF 79%
  • Shots inside box10 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 10 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 3 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks1 blockIndependiente Medellín 6 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save2 savesIndependiente Medellín 1 save, Fortaleza CEIF 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside4 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 1 offside, Fortaleza CEIF 4 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín18 matchesFortaleza CEIF18 matches
1.39 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.11 goals/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.44 goals/match
1.11 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/150.91 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots18/1812.3 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.72 shots/match
52.3%Possession18/18● 54.7%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners18/184.28 corners/match
4.14 cards/matchCards7/93.56 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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