PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Municipal de Cota

Fortaleza CEIF 2–1 Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza CEIF won 2–1.

Shots
1017
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.621.99
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza FC beat Bucaramanga 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza FC – Bucaramanga): shots 10–17, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.62–1.99, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.37 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots17 shotsFortaleza CEIF 10 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsFortaleza CEIF 3 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.62 xG1.99 xGFortaleza CEIF 0.62 xG, Atlético Bucaramanga 1.99 xG
  • Possession61%39%Fortaleza CEIF 61%, Atlético Bucaramanga 39%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersFortaleza CEIF 6 corners, Atlético Bucaramanga 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsFortaleza CEIF 8 fouls, Atlético Bucaramanga 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsFortaleza CEIF 1 card, Atlético Bucaramanga 2 cards
  • Passes411 passes268 passesFortaleza CEIF 411 passes, Atlético Bucaramanga 268 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%74%Fortaleza CEIF 86%, Atlético Bucaramanga 74%
  • Shots inside box4 shots10 shotsFortaleza CEIF 4 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 10 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksFortaleza CEIF 2 blocks, Atlético Bucaramanga 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveFortaleza CEIF 1 save, Atlético Bucaramanga 1 save

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Bucaramanga in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF19 matchesAtlético Bucaramanga19 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.37 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 1.05 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals16/14▲ 1.09 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.68 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 4.16 shots/match
55% ●Possession19/1951.7%
4.37 corners/matchCorners19/19● 4.58 corners/match
3.56 cards/matchCards9/35.67 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFAtlético Bucaramanga
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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