PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Millonarios 2–0 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Millonarios won 2–0.

Shots
139
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.510.42
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millonarios beat Deportes Tolima 2–0. Recorded in this match (Millonarios – Deportes Tolima): shots 13–9, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.51–0.42, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.89 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.89 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.61 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millonarios.

3.98 days ▲Rest daysMillonarios · Deportes Tolima5.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMillonariosDeportes TolimaBaseline
Rest days3.98 days5.08 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsMillonarios 13 shots, Deportes Tolima 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsMillonarios 6 shots, Deportes Tolima 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.51 xG0.42 xGMillonarios 1.51 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.42 xG
  • Possession41%59%Millonarios 41%, Deportes Tolima 59%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersMillonarios 6 corners, Deportes Tolima 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsMillonarios 12 fouls, Deportes Tolima 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsMillonarios 3 cards, Deportes Tolima 3 cards
  • Passes299 passes444 passesMillonarios 299 passes, Deportes Tolima 444 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%82%Millonarios 79%, Deportes Tolima 82%
  • Shots inside box7 shots3 shotsMillonarios 7 shots, Deportes Tolima 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksMillonarios 4 blocks, Deportes Tolima 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves4 savesMillonarios 3 saves, Deportes Tolima 4 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideMillonarios 3 offsides, Deportes Tolima 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millonarios favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millonarios18 matchesDeportes Tolima18 matches
1.61 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 0.89 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.47 xG/match
15.4 shots/match ▲Shots18/1813.4 shots/match
5.11 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/184.5 shots/match
46.8%Possession18/18● 55.6%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners18/184.78 corners/match
4.5 cards/matchCards6/73.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 05:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillonariosDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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