PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Jaraguay

Jaguares de Córdoba 2–3 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Pasto won 2–3.

Shots
1911
Shots on target
95
Expected goals
1.541.07
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Pasto beat Jaguares 3–2. Recorded in this match (Jaguares – Deportivo Pasto): shots 19–11, shots on target 9–5, expected goals 1.54–1.07, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Jaguares's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Jaguares's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots11 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 19 shots, Deportivo Pasto 11 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots5 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 9 shots, Deportivo Pasto 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.54 xG1.07 xGJaguares de Córdoba 1.54 xG, Deportivo Pasto 1.07 xG
  • Possession48%52%Jaguares de Córdoba 48%, Deportivo Pasto 52%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersJaguares de Córdoba 4 corners, Deportivo Pasto 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsJaguares de Córdoba 14 fouls, Deportivo Pasto 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards6 cardsJaguares de Córdoba 3 cards, Deportivo Pasto 6 cards
  • Passes356 passes387 passesJaguares de Córdoba 356 passes, Deportivo Pasto 387 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%83%Jaguares de Córdoba 83%, Deportivo Pasto 83%
  • Shots inside box11 shots7 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 11 shots, Deportivo Pasto 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksJaguares de Córdoba 3 blocks, Deportivo Pasto 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save7 savesJaguares de Córdoba 1 save, Deportivo Pasto 7 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideJaguares de Córdoba 3 offsides, Deportivo Pasto 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Jaguares de Córdoba favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 12 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Jaguares de Córdoba17 matchesDeportivo Pasto17 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.12 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals14/12▲ 1.26 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 12.4 shots/match
3.41 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 3.88 shots/match
45.4%Possession17/17● 51.5%
4.12 corners/match ●Corners17/173.65 corners/match
4.5 cards/matchCards4/94.56 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJaguares de CórdobaDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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