PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellín · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas and Independiente Medellín drew 1–1.

Shots
1216
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.640.67
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas and Independiente Medellin drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Independiente Medellin): shots 12–16, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.64–0.67, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Once Caldas, Independiente Medellin.

3.44 days ▲Rest daysOnce Caldas · Independiente Medellin3.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente MedellinBaseline
Rest days3.44 days3.1 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Once Caldas have a visible home split

moderate

Once Caldas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Independiente Medellin show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Independiente Medellin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsOnce Caldas · Independiente Medellin15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente MedellinBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots16 shotsOnce Caldas 12 shots, Independiente Medellín 16 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsOnce Caldas 1 shot, Independiente Medellín 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.64 xG0.67 xGOnce Caldas 0.64 xG, Independiente Medellín 0.67 xG
  • Possession55%45%Once Caldas 55%, Independiente Medellín 45%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersOnce Caldas 3 corners, Independiente Medellín 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsOnce Caldas 8 fouls, Independiente Medellín 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsOnce Caldas 3 cards, Independiente Medellín 3 cards
  • Passes403 passes337 passesOnce Caldas 403 passes, Independiente Medellín 337 passes
  • Pass accuracy84%82%Once Caldas 84%, Independiente Medellín 82%
  • Shots inside box3 shots7 shotsOnce Caldas 3 shots, Independiente Medellín 7 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks6 blocksOnce Caldas 5 blocks, Independiente Medellín 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveOnce Caldas 3 saves, Independiente Medellín 1 save
  • Offsides2 offsides3 offsidesOnce Caldas 2 offsides, Independiente Medellín 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Medellín in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas15 matchesIndependiente Medellín14 matches
1.73 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/141.36 goals/match
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/141.36 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals13/10▲ 1.25 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots15/14▲ 15.3 shots/match
5.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/144.79 shots/match
53.3% ●Possession15/1452.6%
5.07 corners/matchCorners15/14● 5.71 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/64 cards/match
9.87 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellín
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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