PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 2–1 América de Cali · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 2–1.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.390.51
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellin beat America de Cali 2–1. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – America de Cali): shots 17–10, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.39–0.51, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

America de Cali's recent record differs from the season

moderate

America de Cali's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Independiente Medellin have a visible home split

moderate

Independiente Medellin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsIndependiente Medellín 17 shots, América de Cali 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsIndependiente Medellín 4 shots, América de Cali 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.39 xG0.51 xGIndependiente Medellín 1.39 xG, América de Cali 0.51 xG
  • Possession50%50%Independiente Medellín 50%, América de Cali 50%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersIndependiente Medellín 5 corners, América de Cali 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsIndependiente Medellín 10 fouls, América de Cali 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsIndependiente Medellín 1 card, América de Cali 3 cards
  • Passes373 passes365 passesIndependiente Medellín 373 passes, América de Cali 365 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%84%Independiente Medellín 83%, América de Cali 84%
  • Shots inside box13 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 13 shots, América de Cali 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksIndependiente Medellín 4 blocks, América de Cali 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveIndependiente Medellín 1 save, América de Cali 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 1 offside, América de Cali 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · América de Cali in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín13 matchesAmérica de Cali13 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.31 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 0.77 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/111.19 xG/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots13/1314.4 shots/match
4.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/134.46 shots/match
53.2%Possession13/13● 56.2%
5.77 corners/match ●Corners13/133.92 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards6/73.43 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1314.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 31 Mar 2026, 03:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínAmérica de Cali
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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