PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Bello Horizonte

Llaneros FC 1–1 Once Caldas · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Llaneros FC and Once Caldas drew 1–1.

Shots
127
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.181.25
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Llaneros and Once Caldas drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Llaneros – Once Caldas): shots 12–7, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.18–1.25, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas have a visible away split

moderate

Once Caldas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.71 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.71 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Llaneros's recent record differs from the season

weak

Llaneros's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsLlaneros FC 12 shots, Once Caldas 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsLlaneros FC 6 shots, Once Caldas 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.18 xG1.25 xGLlaneros FC 1.18 xG, Once Caldas 1.25 xG
  • Possession53%47%Llaneros FC 53%, Once Caldas 47%
  • Corners8 corners1 cornerLlaneros FC 8 corners, Once Caldas 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls6 foulsLlaneros FC 11 fouls, Once Caldas 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsLlaneros FC 4 cards, Once Caldas 3 cards
  • Passes286 passes270 passesLlaneros FC 286 passes, Once Caldas 270 passes
  • Pass accuracy85%76%Llaneros FC 85%, Once Caldas 76%
  • Shots inside box5 shots5 shotsLlaneros FC 5 shots, Once Caldas 5 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block1 blockLlaneros FC 1 block, Once Caldas 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save5 savesLlaneros FC 1 save, Once Caldas 5 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideLlaneros FC 3 offsides, Once Caldas 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Llaneros FC favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Llaneros FC14 matchesOnce Caldas14 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.79 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.29 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals9/121.08 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.21 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 5.43 shots/match
49%Possession14/14● 53.2%
4.71 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.21 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLlaneros FCOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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