PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Millonarios 2–2 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Millonarios and Fortaleza CEIF drew 2–2.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.220.74
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millonarios and Fortaleza FC drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Millonarios – Fortaleza FC): shots 15–10, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.22–0.74, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fortaleza FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.8%PossessionMillonarios · Fortaleza FC● 54.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FCBaseline
Possession45.8%54.3%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsMillonarios 15 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsMillonarios 4 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.22 xG0.74 xGMillonarios 1.22 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 0.74 xG
  • Possession49%51%Millonarios 49%, Fortaleza CEIF 51%
  • Corners13 corners2 cornersMillonarios 13 corners, Fortaleza CEIF 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsMillonarios 9 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards7 cardsMillonarios 4 cards, Fortaleza CEIF 7 cards
  • Passes303 passes352 passesMillonarios 303 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 352 passes
  • Pass accuracy82%84%Millonarios 82%, Fortaleza CEIF 84%
  • Shots inside box9 shots6 shotsMillonarios 9 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 6 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks1 blockMillonarios 5 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesMillonarios 3 saves, Fortaleza CEIF 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesMillonarios 2 offsides, Fortaleza CEIF 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millonarios favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millonarios14 matchesFortaleza CEIF14 matches
1.79 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/110.98 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots14/1412.3 shots/match
4.93 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/144 shots/match
45.8%Possession14/14● 54.3%
5.64 corners/match ●Corners14/144.36 corners/match
4.2 cards/matchCards5/73.86 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 31 Mar 2026, 05:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillonariosFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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