PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Jaraguay

Jaguares de Córdoba 1–0 Millonarios · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Jaguares de Córdoba won 1–0.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
47
Expected goals
1.850.89
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Jaguares beat Millonarios 1–0. Recorded in this match (Jaguares – Millonarios): shots 13–13, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 1.85–0.89, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Jaguares's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Jaguares's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millonarios.

5.01 days ▲Rest daysJaguares · Millonarios2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricJaguaresMillonariosBaseline
Rest days5.01 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Millonarios show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Millonarios's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsJaguares · Millonarios15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricJaguaresMillonariosBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 13 shots, Millonarios 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots7 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 4 shots, Millonarios 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG0.89 xGJaguares de Córdoba 1.85 xG, Millonarios 0.89 xG
  • Possession37%63%Jaguares de Córdoba 37%, Millonarios 63%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersJaguares de Córdoba 2 corners, Millonarios 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsJaguares de Córdoba 12 fouls, Millonarios 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsJaguares de Córdoba 2 cards, Millonarios 2 cards
  • Passes292 passes479 passesJaguares de Córdoba 292 passes, Millonarios 479 passes
  • Pass accuracy73%83%Jaguares de Córdoba 73%, Millonarios 83%
  • Shots inside box8 shots8 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 8 shots, Millonarios 8 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksJaguares de Córdoba 3 blocks, Millonarios 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves3 savesJaguares de Córdoba 7 saves, Millonarios 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideJaguares de Córdoba 1 offside, Millonarios 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Jaguares de Córdoba favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 12 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Jaguares de Córdoba15 matchesMillonarios15 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.13 goals/match
0.9 xG/matchExpected goals12/11▲ 1.29 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 15.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 5.07 shots/match
45%Possession15/15● 46.9%
4.27 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.6 corners/match
4.5 cards/matchCards4/54.2 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 03:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJaguares de CórdobaMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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