PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.311.5
Expected goals
1.11.65
Shots
12.813.5
Possession
47.7%46.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Minnesota United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Houston Dynamo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 5 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Houston Dynamo26 matchesMinnesota United26 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.77 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals24/23▲ 1.65 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots26/2613.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.85 shots/match
47.7% ●Possession26/2646.1%
4.15 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.35 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/62 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Houston Dynamo
1Draws
2Minnesota United
Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–1
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer2–0
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–1
Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer1–2
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHouston DynamoMinnesota United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headHouston Dynamo — Minnesota United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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