PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.261.44
Expected goals
1.531.16
Shots
1312
Possession
51.8%45.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: new York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York Red Bulls favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 4 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York Red Bulls27 matchesToronto FC27 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.89 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.16 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots27/2712 shots/match
4.59 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.33 shots/match
51.8% ●Possession27/2745.1%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners27/274.81 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3New York Red Bulls
2Draws
0Toronto FC
Toronto FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–1
Toronto FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–1
New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Toronto FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–4
New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York Red BullsToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York Red Bulls — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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