PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Minnesota United vs St.Louis City · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.481.68
Expected goals
1.641.64
Shots
13.413.6
Possession
46.2%51.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Minnesota United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Minnesota United favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · St.Louis City in 4 · 7 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Minnesota United25 matchesSt.Louis City25 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.4 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.64 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots25/2513.6 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target25/254.72 shots/match
46.2%Possession25/25● 51.8%
5.36 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.48 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/82.25 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2514 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Minnesota United
0Draws
1St.Louis City
St.Louis City — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer4–2
St.Louis City — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–2
Minnesota United — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer3–0
Minnesota United — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer4–1
St.Louis City — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMinnesota UnitedSt.Louis City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headMinnesota United — St.Louis City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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