PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.881.84
Expected goals
1.81.95
Shots
14.316.5
Possession
52.1%47.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.84 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match1.84 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chicago Fire favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 6 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chicago Fire24 matchesPhiladelphia Union25 matches
1.88 goals/matchGoals scored24/251.84 goals/match
1.46 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/251.56 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goals20/22▲ 1.95 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots23/25▲ 16.5 shots/match
5.35 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/254.96 shots/match
52.1% ●Possession23/2547.2%
4.57 corners/matchCorners23/25● 6 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/73.14 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2515.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Chicago Fire
1Draws
3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–2
Chicago Fire — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer0–3
Philadelphia Union — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer2–2
Philadelphia Union — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer4–0
Chicago Fire — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChicago FirePhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headChicago Fire — Philadelphia Union
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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