PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

DC United vs New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.251.31
Expected goals
1.411.54
Shots
1213.2
Possession
38.6%52.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: new York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: new York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.6%PossessionDC United · New York Red Bulls● 52.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricDC UnitedNew York Red BullsBaseline
Possession38.6%52.1%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: DC United favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 8 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

DC United24 matchesNew York Red Bulls26 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored24/261.31 goals/match
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/261.85 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals21/23▲ 1.54 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots24/26▲ 13.2 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target24/26▲ 4.58 shots/match
38.6%Possession24/26● 52.1%
4.88 corners/matchCorners24/26● 5.73 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls24/2612.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1DC United
2Draws
2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls — DC United · Major League Soccer4–4
DC United — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–2
New York Red Bulls — DC United · Major League Soccer1–2
New York Red Bulls — DC United · Major League Soccer2–2
DC United — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDC UnitedNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headDC United — New York Red Bulls
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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