PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nashville SC won 2–0.

Shots
2311
Shots on target
113
Expected goals
2.570.52
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nashville SC beat Toronto FC 2–0. Recorded in this match (Nashville SC – Toronto FC): shots 23–11, shots on target 11–3, expected goals 2.57–0.52, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nashville SC have recorded the higher season possession share.

54% ●PossessionNashville SC · Toronto FC45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNashville SCToronto FCBaseline
Possession54%45.1%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots11 shotsNashville SC 23 shots, Toronto FC 11 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots3 shotsNashville SC 11 shots, Toronto FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.57 xG0.52 xGNashville SC 2.57 xG, Toronto FC 0.52 xG
  • Possession62%38%Nashville SC 62%, Toronto FC 38%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersNashville SC 9 corners, Toronto FC 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls9 foulsNashville SC 12 fouls, Toronto FC 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsNashville SC 1 card, Toronto FC 0 cards
  • Passes509 passes316 passesNashville SC 509 passes, Toronto FC 316 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.8%71.8%Nashville SC 86.8%, Toronto FC 71.8%
  • Shots inside box17 shots5 shotsNashville SC 17 shots, Toronto FC 5 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks5 blocksNashville SC 5 blocks, Toronto FC 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves9 savesNashville SC 3 saves, Toronto FC 9 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides0 offsidesNashville SC 5 offsides, Toronto FC 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 16′Hany MukhtarGoal · Nashville SC
  2. 43′Hany MukhtarGoal · Nashville SC
  3. Half-time
  4. 81′Sam SurridgeYellow card · Nashville SC
  5. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Toronto FC · 1 player changeAlonso Coello
  • 63′Toronto FC · 1 player changeKobe Franklin
  • 71′Nashville SC · 1 player changeShakur Mohammed
  • 73′Toronto FC · 2 player changesEmilio Aristizábal · Alejandro Piedrahita
  • 78′Nashville SC · 1 player changeAlex Muyl
  • 86′Nashville SC · 1 player changeBryan Acosta
  • 87′Toronto FC · 1 player changeDerrick Etienne
  • 87′Nashville SC · 1 player changeJosh Bauer

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Nashville SC
  1. Joe WillisG
  2. Maxwell WoledziD
  3. Jeisson PalaciosD
  4. Reed Baker-WhitingD
  5. Andy NajarD
  6. Elias SaadM
  7. Matthew CorcoranM
  8. Edvard TagsethM
  9. Cristian EspinozaF
  10. Sam SurridgeF
  11. Hany MukhtarF
Toronto FC
  1. Luka GavranG
  2. Matheus PereiraD
  3. Zane MonlouisD
  4. Nickseon GomisD
  5. Jackson GilmanD
  6. Niklas DorschM
  7. Dániel SallóiM
  8. Jonathan OsorioM
  9. Theo CorbeanuF
  10. Josh SargentF
  11. Lewis MorganF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Nashville SC
0Draws
1Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer2–1
Nashville SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–0
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Nashville SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC27 matchesToronto FC27 matches
2.04 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.44 goals/match
0.78 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.89 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.16 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots27/2712 shots/match
4.93 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.33 shots/match
54% ●Possession27/2745.1%
5.3 corners/match ●Corners27/274.81 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/62 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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