PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

St.Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

St.Louis City won 3–1.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.541.08
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

St.Louis City beat Toronto FC 3–1. Recorded in this match (St.Louis City – Toronto FC): shots 17–10, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.54–1.08, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.73 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for St.Louis City.

7 days ▲Rest daysSt.Louis City · Toronto FC7.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSt.Louis CityToronto FCBaseline
Rest days7 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsSt.Louis City 17 shots, Toronto FC 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsSt.Louis City 8 shots, Toronto FC 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG1.08 xGSt.Louis City 2.54 xG, Toronto FC 1.08 xG
  • Possession61%39%St.Louis City 61%, Toronto FC 39%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersSt.Louis City 8 corners, Toronto FC 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsSt.Louis City 16 fouls, Toronto FC 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsSt.Louis City 2 cards, Toronto FC 2 cards
  • Passes470 passes294 passesSt.Louis City 470 passes, Toronto FC 294 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.9%77.9%St.Louis City 84.9%, Toronto FC 77.9%
  • Shots inside box14 shots5 shotsSt.Louis City 14 shots, Toronto FC 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks6 blocksSt.Louis City 4 blocks, Toronto FC 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save5 savesSt.Louis City 1 save, Toronto FC 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesSt.Louis City 1 offside, Toronto FC 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 23′Walker ZimmermanYellow card · Toronto FC
  2. 34′Conrad WallemYellow card · St.Louis City
  3. 41′Carlo HolseGoal · St.Louis City
  4. Half-time
  5. 54′Tomas TotlandGoal · St.Louis City
  6. 68′Simon BecherGoal · St.Louis City
  7. 72′Fallou FallYellow card · St.Louis City
  8. 74′Alonso CoelloYellow card · Toronto FC
  9. 89′Damion DownsGoal · St.Louis City
  10. 90′Theo CorbeanuGoal · Toronto FC
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′St.Louis City · 1 player changeSimon Becher
  • 56′Toronto FC · 1 player changeNickseon Gomis
  • 62′Toronto FC · 2 player changesJonathan Osorio · Zane Monlouis
  • 63′Toronto FC · 1 player changeTheo Corbeanu
  • 74′Toronto FC · 1 player changeLewis Morgan
  • 78′St.Louis City · 2 player changesDante Polvara · Daniel Edelman
  • 83′St.Louis City · 1 player changeDamion Downs
  • 90′St.Louis City · 1 player changeTomáš Ostrák

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

St.Louis City3-4-3
  1. Roman BürkiG
  2. Conrad WallemD
  3. Rafael SantosD
  4. Fallou FallD
  5. Timo BaumgartlD
  6. Jaziel OrozcoD
  7. Dante PolvaraM
  8. Daniel EdelmanM
  9. Rafael NavarroF
  10. Simon BecherF
  11. Carlo HolseF
Toronto FC4-4-2
  1. Luka GavranG
  2. Matheus PereiraD
  3. Benjamin KuscevicD
  4. Richie LaryeaD
  5. Walker ZimmermanD
  6. Niklas DorschM
  7. Theo CorbeanuM
  8. Dániel SallóiM
  9. Markus CimermancicM
  10. Josh SargentF
  11. Derrick EtienneF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1St.Louis City
0Draws
0Toronto FC
Toronto FC — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: St.Louis City favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

St.Louis City26 matchesToronto FC26 matches
1.73 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.5 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.88 goals/match
1.68 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/241.19 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots26/2612 shots/match
4.85 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/264.38 shots/match
52.1% ●Possession26/2645.4%
5.58 corners/match ●Corners26/264.88 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/62 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSt.Louis CityToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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