Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC

St.Louis City

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vsPre-match analysis

Toronto FC

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30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1St.Louis City

0Draws

0Toronto FC

8 Jul 2023Toronto FC — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: St.Louis City favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 1 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

St.Louis City21 matchesToronto FC22 matches

1.43 goals/matchGoals scored21/221.45 goals/match

1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/221.73 goals/match

1.56 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/201.1 xG/match

14.1 shots/match ▲Shots21/2211.4 shots/match

4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/224.23 shots/match

51.2% ●Possession21/2246.1%

5.76 corners/match ●Corners21/225.05 corners/match

2.57 cards/matchCards7/62 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2211.6 fouls/match

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St.Louis City65.0

Toronto FC11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St.Louis City52.2

Toronto FC22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St.Louis City85.0

Toronto FC44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St.Louis City68.3

Toronto FC38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City70.0

Toronto FC31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City81.7

Toronto FC58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St.Louis City72.9

Toronto FC32.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples21 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4