PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Portland Timbers 2–2 St.Louis City · Major League Soccer

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Portland Timbers and St.Louis City drew 2–2.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.921.86
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Portland Timbers and St.Louis City drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Portland Timbers – St.Louis City): shots 16–10, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.92–1.86, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Portland Timbers, St.Louis City.

4 days ▲Rest daysPortland Timbers · St.Louis City4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPortland TimbersSt.Louis CityBaseline
Rest days4 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

St.Louis City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

St.Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsPortland Timbers · St.Louis City13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPortland TimbersSt.Louis CityBaseline
Shots13 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsPortland Timbers 16 shots, St.Louis City 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsPortland Timbers 3 shots, St.Louis City 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG1.86 xGPortland Timbers 0.92 xG, St.Louis City 1.86 xG
  • Possession52%48%Portland Timbers 52%, St.Louis City 48%
  • Corners9 corners2 cornersPortland Timbers 9 corners, St.Louis City 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls21 foulsPortland Timbers 10 fouls, St.Louis City 21 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsPortland Timbers 1 card, St.Louis City 4 cards
  • Passes459 passes442 passesPortland Timbers 459 passes, St.Louis City 442 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.8%86%Portland Timbers 84.8%, St.Louis City 86%
  • Shots inside box8 shots7 shotsPortland Timbers 8 shots, St.Louis City 7 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks1 blockPortland Timbers 8 blocks, St.Louis City 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 savePortland Timbers 2 saves, St.Louis City 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsidePortland Timbers 3 offsides, St.Louis City 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 1′Rafael NavarroGoal · St.Louis City
  2. 32′Dante PolvaraYellow card · St.Louis City
  3. 32′Kristoffer VeldeGoal · Portland Timbers
  4. 36′Jaziel OrozcoYellow card · St.Louis City
  5. 45′Tomas TotlandYellow card · St.Louis City
  6. Half-time
  7. 51′Rafael NavarroGoal · St.Louis City
  8. 58′Eric MillerYellow card · Portland Timbers
  9. 67′Rafael NavarroYellow card · St.Louis City
  10. 89′Kristoffer VeldeGoal · Portland Timbers
  11. Full time
Player changes · 12grouped by team and minute
  • 18′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeDiego Chará
  • 46′St.Louis City · 1 player changeLukas MacNaughton
  • 65′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeRonald Hernández
  • 65′St.Louis City · 2 player changesSimon Becher · Fallou Fall
  • 66′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeAntony Alves
  • 80′St.Louis City · 1 player changeMykhi Joyner
  • 81′Portland Timbers · 2 player changesOmir Fernandez · Ian Smith
  • 81′St.Louis City · 1 player changeCarlo Holse
  • 89′St.Louis City · 1 player changeDamion Downs
  • 90′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeGage Guerra

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Portland Timbers4-3-3
  1. James PantemisG
  2. Kamal MillerD
  3. Eric MillerD
  4. Finn SurmanD
  5. Jímer ForyD
  6. David Pereira Da CostaM
  7. Cole BassettM
  8. José CaicedoM
  9. Ariel LassiterF
  10. Vincent JanssenF
  11. Kristoffer VeldeF
St.Louis City3-4-3
  1. Roman BürkiG
  2. Lukas MacNaughtonD
  3. Tomas TotlandD
  4. Dante PolvaraD
  5. Timo BaumgartlD
  6. Mykhi JoynerD
  7. Christopher DurkinM
  8. Daniel EdelmanM
  9. Simon BecherF
  10. Carlo HolseF
  11. Alexandru MățanF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Portland Timbers
2Draws
1St.Louis City
St.Louis City — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer2–1
Portland Timbers — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer2–1
Portland Timbers — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer4–4
St.Louis City — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer0–0
St.Louis City — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Portland Timbers favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · St.Louis City in 8 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Portland Timbers24 matchesSt.Louis City24 matches
1.92 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.58 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.38 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.59 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots24/2413.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target24/244.58 shots/match
50.3%Possession24/24● 51.3%
4.67 corners/matchCorners24/24● 5.46 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards8/72.57 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2414 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 06:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPortland TimbersSt.Louis City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headPortland Timbers — St.Louis City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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