Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

St.Louis City

WDWWW

vsPre-match analysis

Minnesota United

DLLDL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

St.Louis City favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 1 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.19 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.5 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.48 xG/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.35 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.4 shots/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612.3 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

4.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

49.8%●Possessionseason · 16/1648%

5.88 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/165.25 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.25 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/41.25 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲25%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St.Louis City48.3

Minnesota United41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St.Louis City52.8

Minnesota United38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St.Louis City76.1

Minnesota United52.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St.Louis City75

Minnesota United61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City83.3

Minnesota United30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City86.7

Minnesota United63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St.Louis City71.7

Minnesota United57.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

St.Louis City16 matchesMinnesota United16 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.19 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.5 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.48 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots16/1613.4 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target16/164.63 shots/match

49.8%●Possession16/1648%

5.88 corners/match●Corners16/165.25 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCards5/41.25 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

St.Louis City7 matchesMinnesota United9 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/91.44 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/92.11 goals/match

1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals5/71.39 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/911.9 shots/match

5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/95.33 shots/match

51%●Possession7/946.3%

5.71 corners/match●Corners7/95.22 corners/match

—Cards2/31 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/912.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

51.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/152 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness52 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4