PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

St.Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United · Major League Soccer

4–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

St.Louis City won 4–2.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.751.92
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

St.Louis City beat Minnesota United 4–2. Recorded in this match (St.Louis City – Minnesota United): shots 14–10, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.75–1.92, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Minnesota United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for St.Louis City, Minnesota United.

2.92 days ▲Rest daysSt.Louis City · Minnesota United3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSt.Louis CityMinnesota UnitedBaseline
Rest days2.92 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsSt.Louis City 14 shots, Minnesota United 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsSt.Louis City 8 shots, Minnesota United 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.75 xG1.92 xGSt.Louis City 2.75 xG, Minnesota United 1.92 xG
  • Possession64%36%St.Louis City 64%, Minnesota United 36%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersSt.Louis City 6 corners, Minnesota United 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls15 foulsSt.Louis City 14 fouls, Minnesota United 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsSt.Louis City 0 cards, Minnesota United 3 cards
  • Passes598 passes327 passesSt.Louis City 598 passes, Minnesota United 327 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.8%79.8%St.Louis City 89.8%, Minnesota United 79.8%
  • Shots inside box10 shots8 shotsSt.Louis City 10 shots, Minnesota United 8 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks0 blocksSt.Louis City 4 blocks, Minnesota United 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesSt.Louis City 1 save, Minnesota United 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideSt.Louis City 0 offsides, Minnesota United 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Tomás ChancalayGoal · Minnesota United
  2. 18′Daniel EdelmanGoal · St.Louis City
  3. 22′Carlo HolseGoal · St.Louis City
  4. 38′Rafael NavarroGoal · St.Louis City
  5. Half-time
  6. 47′Michael BoxallYellow card · Minnesota United
  7. 57′Rafael NavarroPenalty goal · St.Louis City
  8. 61′Kelvin YeboahPenalty goal · Minnesota United
  9. 64′Kyle DuncanYellow card · Minnesota United
  10. 80′Kyle DuncanSecond yellow · Minnesota United
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 60′St.Louis City · 3 player changesTomas Totland · Alexandru Mățan · Christopher Durkin
  • 75′Minnesota United · 3 player changesJefferson Díaz · Nectarios Triantis · Maurice Malone
  • 76′St.Louis City · 2 player changesLukas MacNaughton · Damion Downs
  • 83′Minnesota United · 1 player changeAziel Jackson

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

St.Louis City3-4-3
  1. Roman BürkiG
  2. Tomas TotlandD
  3. Rafael SantosD
  4. Dante PolvaraD
  5. Timo BaumgartlD
  6. Jaziel OrozcoD
  7. Christopher DurkinM
  8. Daniel EdelmanM
  9. Rafael NavarroF
  10. Alexandru MățanF
  11. Jeong Sang-binF
Minnesota United3-4-1-2
  1. Drake CallenderG
  2. Kyle DuncanD
  3. Anthony MarkanichD
  4. Michael BoxallD
  5. Morris DugganD
  6. Jefferson DíazD
  7. Wil TrappM
  8. Nectarios TriantisM
  9. Joaquín PereyraM
  10. Kelvin YeboahF
  11. Marcus CaldeiraF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1St.Louis City
0Draws
4Minnesota United
St.Louis City — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–2
Minnesota United — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer3–0
Minnesota United — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer4–1
St.Louis City — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–3
Minnesota United — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: St.Louis City favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 2 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

St.Louis City25 matchesMinnesota United25 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.48 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.72 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.64 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots25/2513.4 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on target25/254.84 shots/match
51.8% ●Possession25/2546.2%
5.48 corners/match ●Corners25/255.36 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/62 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSt.Louis CityMinnesota United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headSt.Louis City — Minnesota United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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