PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Houston Dynamo 2–1 Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Houston Dynamo won 2–1.

Shots
129
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.231.22
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Houston Dynamo beat Real Salt Lake 2–1. Recorded in this match (Houston Dynamo – Real Salt Lake): shots 12–9, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.23–1.22, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Houston Dynamo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Houston Dynamo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Salt Lake.

4.04 days ▲Rest daysHouston Dynamo · Real Salt Lake3.96 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHouston DynamoReal Salt LakeBaseline
Rest days4.04 days3.96 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Real Salt Lake have a visible away split

moderate

Real Salt Lake's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsHouston Dynamo 12 shots, Real Salt Lake 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsHouston Dynamo 6 shots, Real Salt Lake 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG1.22 xGHouston Dynamo 1.23 xG, Real Salt Lake 1.22 xG
  • Possession52%48%Houston Dynamo 52%, Real Salt Lake 48%
  • Corners1 corner4 cornersHouston Dynamo 1 corner, Real Salt Lake 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls18 foulsHouston Dynamo 8 fouls, Real Salt Lake 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsHouston Dynamo 1 card, Real Salt Lake 4 cards
  • Passes515 passes477 passesHouston Dynamo 515 passes, Real Salt Lake 477 passes
  • Pass accuracy88.7%89.7%Houston Dynamo 88.7%, Real Salt Lake 89.7%
  • Shots inside box7 shots6 shotsHouston Dynamo 7 shots, Real Salt Lake 6 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksHouston Dynamo 2 blocks, Real Salt Lake 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesHouston Dynamo 2 saves, Real Salt Lake 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside4 offsidesHouston Dynamo 1 offside, Real Salt Lake 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 30′Diego LunaYellow card · Real Salt Lake
  2. 33′Juan Jose AriasYellow card · Real Salt Lake
  3. Half-time
  4. 54′Héctor HerreraYellow card · Houston Dynamo
  5. 57′GuilhermeGoal · Houston Dynamo
  6. 67′Colin GuskeYellow card · Real Salt Lake
  7. 76′Saba LobzhanidzeGoal · Real Salt Lake
  8. 87′Mateusz BoguszGoal · Houston Dynamo
  9. 90′Philip QuintonYellow card · Real Salt Lake
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Real Salt Lake · 1 player changePhilip Quinton
  • 69′Houston Dynamo · 1 player changeDiadié Samassékou
  • 70′Real Salt Lake · 3 player changesLineker Rodrigues · Saba Lobzhanidze · Alexandros Katranis
  • 80′Houston Dynamo · 2 player changesMatthew Arana · Duncan McGuire
  • 90′Houston Dynamo · 1 player changeDuane Holmes
  • 90′Real Salt Lake · 1 player changeOwen Anderson
  • 90′Houston Dynamo · 1 player changeNick Markanich

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Houston Dynamo4-1-4-1
  1. Jonathan BondG
  2. Lucas HalterD
  3. Lawrence EnnaliD
  4. Franco NegriD
  5. Agustin ReschD
  6. ArturM
  7. Héctor HerreraM
  8. Mateusz BoguszM
  9. GuilhermeM
  10. Agustín BouzatM
  11. Duncan McGuireF
Real Salt Lake3-4-2-1
  1. Rafael CabralG
  2. Lukas EngelD
  3. Juan SanabriaD
  4. Juan Jose AriasD
  5. Sam JunquaD
  6. Alexandros KatranisD
  7. Luca MoisaM
  8. Noel CaliskanM
  9. Diego LunaF
  10. Saba LobzhanidzeF
  11. Sergi SolansF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Houston Dynamo
0Draws
4Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–0
Real Salt Lake — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer1–0
Houston Dynamo — Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer1–2
Houston Dynamo — Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer4–1
Real Salt Lake — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Houston Dynamo favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Real Salt Lake in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Houston Dynamo24 matchesReal Salt Lake23 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored24/23▲ 1.61 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/231.61 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals22/20▲ 1.56 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots24/23▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target24/23▲ 5.39 shots/match
47.3%Possession24/23● 49.5%
4.25 corners/matchCorners24/23● 4.65 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/52.6 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2312.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHouston DynamoReal Salt Lake
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headHouston Dynamo — Real Salt Lake
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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