PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Portland Timbers 5–4 Minnesota United · Major League Soccer

5–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Portland Timbers won 5–4.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
2.542.41
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Portland Timbers beat Minnesota United 5–4. Recorded in this match (Portland Timbers – Minnesota United): shots 11–17, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 2.54–2.41, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Minnesota United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Minnesota United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Minnesota United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsPortland Timbers · Minnesota United13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPortland TimbersMinnesota UnitedBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against16.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsPortland Timbers 11 shots, Minnesota United 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsPortland Timbers 5 shots, Minnesota United 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG2.41 xGPortland Timbers 2.54 xG, Minnesota United 2.41 xG
  • Possession50%50%Portland Timbers 50%, Minnesota United 50%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersPortland Timbers 4 corners, Minnesota United 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls18 foulsPortland Timbers 12 fouls, Minnesota United 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsPortland Timbers 1 card, Minnesota United 3 cards
  • Passes548 passes549 passesPortland Timbers 548 passes, Minnesota United 549 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.9%87.4%Portland Timbers 84.9%, Minnesota United 87.4%
  • Shots inside box8 shots15 shotsPortland Timbers 8 shots, Minnesota United 15 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksPortland Timbers 2 blocks, Minnesota United 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 savePortland Timbers 4 saves, Minnesota United 1 save
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesPortland Timbers 2 offsides, Minnesota United 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 11′Vincent JanssenPenalty goal · Portland Timbers
  2. 20′Drake CallenderGoal · Minnesota United
  3. 24′Michael BoxallYellow card · Minnesota United
  4. 26′Vincent JanssenGoal · Portland Timbers
  5. 32′Marcus CaldeiraGoal · Minnesota United
  6. 38′Anthony MarkanichGoal · Minnesota United
  7. 45′Finn SurmanYellow card · Portland Timbers
  8. Half-time
  9. 50′Marcus CaldeiraGoal · Minnesota United
  10. 55′Vincent JanssenGoal · Portland Timbers
  11. 71′Kristoffer VeldeGoal · Portland Timbers
  12. 74′Jefferson DíazYellow card · Minnesota United
  13. 90′Tomás ChancalayGoal · Minnesota United
  14. 90′Morris DugganYellow card · Minnesota United
  15. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 37′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeJoao Ortíz
  • 68′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeDiego Chará
  • 69′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeAntony Alves
  • 72′Minnesota United · 2 player changesNectarios Triantis · Tomás Chancalay
  • 78′Minnesota United · 1 player changeMaurice Malone
  • 81′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeJoel Waterman
  • 82′Portland Timbers · 1 player changeIan Smith
  • 88′Minnesota United · 2 player changesMauricio González · Carlos Harvey

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Portland Timbers4-3-3
  1. James PantemisG
  2. Kamal MillerD
  3. Eric MillerD
  4. Finn SurmanD
  5. Jímer ForyD
  6. David Pereira Da CostaM
  7. Cole BassettM
  8. José CaicedoM
  9. Ariel LassiterF
  10. Gage GuerraF
  11. Kristoffer VeldeF
Minnesota United4-4-2
  1. Alec SmirG
  2. Anthony MarkanichD
  3. Michael BoxallD
  4. Morris DugganD
  5. Jefferson DíazD
  6. Kyle DuncanM
  7. Wil TrappM
  8. Joaquín PereyraM
  9. Owen GeneM
  10. Kelvin YeboahF
  11. Marcus CaldeiraF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Portland Timbers
2Draws
2Minnesota United
Minnesota United — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer2–0
Minnesota United — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer1–1
Portland Timbers — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–1
Portland Timbers — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer3–2
Minnesota United — Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Portland Timbers favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Portland Timbers23 matchesMinnesota United23 matches
1.91 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/231.48 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.61 goals/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.64 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 13.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.04 shots/match
50.3% ●Possession23/2346.4%
4.48 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.52 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards8/51.6 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 06:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPortland TimbersMinnesota United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headPortland Timbers — Minnesota United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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