PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Minnesota United 3–3 Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

3–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Minnesota United and Orlando City SC drew 3–3.

Shots
216
Shots on target
95
Expected goals
3.641.09
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Minnesota United and Orlando City SC drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Minnesota United – Orlando City SC): shots 21–6, shots on target 9–5, expected goals 3.64–1.09, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Minnesota United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Minnesota United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Minnesota United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match ▲ShotsMinnesota United · Orlando City SC11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMinnesota UnitedOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match17.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Minnesota United.

6.92 days ▲Rest daysMinnesota United · Orlando City SC7.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMinnesota UnitedOrlando City SCBaseline
Rest days6.92 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots6 shotsMinnesota United 21 shots, Orlando City SC 6 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots5 shotsMinnesota United 9 shots, Orlando City SC 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.64 xG1.09 xGMinnesota United 3.64 xG, Orlando City SC 1.09 xG
  • Possession43%57%Minnesota United 43%, Orlando City SC 57%
  • Corners8 corners1 cornerMinnesota United 8 corners, Orlando City SC 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsMinnesota United 13 fouls, Orlando City SC 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsMinnesota United 2 cards, Orlando City SC 2 cards
  • Passes411 passes571 passesMinnesota United 411 passes, Orlando City SC 571 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.9%84.1%Minnesota United 85.9%, Orlando City SC 84.1%
  • Shots inside box20 shots4 shotsMinnesota United 20 shots, Orlando City SC 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockMinnesota United 4 blocks, Orlando City SC 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves6 savesMinnesota United 2 saves, Orlando City SC 6 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideMinnesota United 4 offsides, Orlando City SC 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 28′Daryl DikeGoal · Orlando City SC
  2. 32′Anthony MarkanichYellow card · Minnesota United
  3. Half-time
  4. 54′Antoine GriezmannYellow card · Orlando City SC
  5. 64′Antoine GriezmannGoal · Orlando City SC
  6. 66′Michael BoxallYellow card · Minnesota United
  7. 71′Marcus CaldeiraGoal · Minnesota United
  8. 74′Anthony MarkanichGoal · Minnesota United
  9. 75′Kelvin YeboahGoal · Minnesota United
  10. 90′Marco PašalićYellow card · Orlando City SC
  11. 90′Tyrese SpicerGoal · Orlando City SC
  12. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Minnesota United · 1 player changeAlec Smir
  • 59′Orlando City SC · 2 player changesHarvey Sarajian · Luis Otávio
  • 72′Minnesota United · 2 player changesNectarios Triantis · Mauricio González
  • 73′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeTyrese Spicer
  • 81′Orlando City SC · 2 player changesMarco Pašalić · Martín Ojeda
  • 85′Minnesota United · 1 player changeTomás Chancalay
  • 90′Minnesota United · 1 player changeCarlos Harvey

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Minnesota United
0Draws
1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer2–3
Minnesota United — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Minnesota United favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Minnesota United22 matchesOrlando City SC22 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/222.45 goals/match
1.6 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/181.44 xG/match
13.6 shots/match ▲Shots22/2111.6 shots/match
4.91 shots/matchShots on target22/214.67 shots/match
46.2%Possession22/21● 47.7%
5.64 corners/match ●Corners22/213.86 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls22/2110.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMinnesota UnitedOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headMinnesota United — Orlando City SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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