PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Nashville SC 4–0 FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

4–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nashville SC won 4–0.

Shots
1915
Shots on target
78
Expected goals
2.041.74
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nashville SC beat FC Cincinnati 4–0. Recorded in this match (Nashville SC – FC Cincinnati): shots 19–15, shots on target 7–8, expected goals 2.04–1.74, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nashville SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.14 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nashville SC have a visible home split

moderate

Nashville SC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nashville SC.

7 days ▲Rest daysNashville SC · FC Cincinnati7.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNashville SCFC CincinnatiBaseline
Rest days7 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots15 shotsNashville SC 19 shots, FC Cincinnati 15 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots8 shotsNashville SC 7 shots, FC Cincinnati 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.04 xG1.74 xGNashville SC 2.04 xG, FC Cincinnati 1.74 xG
  • Possession52%48%Nashville SC 52%, FC Cincinnati 48%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersNashville SC 6 corners, FC Cincinnati 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsNashville SC 14 fouls, FC Cincinnati 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsNashville SC 3 cards, FC Cincinnati 2 cards
  • Passes408 passes380 passesNashville SC 408 passes, FC Cincinnati 380 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%86.8%Nashville SC 88%, FC Cincinnati 86.8%
  • Shots inside box12 shots9 shotsNashville SC 12 shots, FC Cincinnati 9 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks2 blocksNashville SC 7 blocks, FC Cincinnati 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves4 savesNashville SC 6 saves, FC Cincinnati 4 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesNashville SC 4 offsides, FC Cincinnati 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 43′Sam SurridgeGoal · Nashville SC
  2. 44′Obinna NwobodoYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  3. Half-time
  4. 49′Andy NajarYellow card · Nashville SC
  5. 54′Hany MukhtarGoal · Nashville SC
  6. 70′Jeisson PalaciosYellow card · Nashville SC
  7. 79′Edvard TagsethYellow card · Nashville SC
  8. 89′Bryan RamirezYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  9. 89′Bryan AcostaGoal · Nashville SC
  10. 90′Ahmed QasemGoal · Nashville SC
  11. Full time
Player changes · 12grouped by team and minute
  • 46′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesBryan Ramirez · Ayoub Jabbari
  • 62′Nashville SC · 1 player changeMatthew Corcoran
  • 66′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeKyle Smith
  • 73′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeTom Barlow
  • 87′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeAlvas Powell
  • 87′Nashville SC · 3 player changesDaniel Lovitz · Bryan Acosta · Shakur Mohammed
  • 90′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeTah Anunga
  • 90′Nashville SC · 2 player changesAlex Muyl · Ahmed Qasem

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nashville SC
1Draws
3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer2–1
Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–2
Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–2
FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–2
FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC22 matchesFC Cincinnati22 matches
2.14 goals/matchGoals scored22/222.23 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/222.32 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals19/20▲ 1.72 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 13.9 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 6.05 shots/match
54% ●Possession22/2250.5%
5.23 corners/match ●Corners22/224.77 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/82.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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