Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes

DLLWL

vsPre-match analysis

Minnesota United

DLLDL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

San Jose Earthquakes's recent record differs from the season

weak

San Jose Earthquakes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2.13 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Jose Earthquakes favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 0 · 6 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.19 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.5 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.48 xG/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.35 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.4 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1612.3 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

46.8%Possessionseason · 16/1648%

7.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.25 corners/match

4.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.25 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1625%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Jose Earthquakes25

Minnesota United41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Jose Earthquakes83.3

Minnesota United38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Jose Earthquakes66.7

Minnesota United52.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Jose Earthquakes78.3

Minnesota United61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes31.7

Minnesota United30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes98.3

Minnesota United63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Jose Earthquakes77.9

Minnesota United57.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.49 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match

41.2%Possession5/557.6%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.57 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match

5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.2 shots/match

46.7%Possession10/1051.5%

6.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.19 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.5 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.48 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots16/1613.4 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match

46.8%Possession16/1648%

7.13 corners/matchCorners16/165.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.44 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.11 goals/match

2.43 xG/match▲Expected goals6/71.39 xG/match

18.5 shots/match▲Shots8/911.9 shots/match

7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/95.33 shots/match

49.6%Possession8/946.3%

9.5 corners/matchCorners8/95.22 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/31 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/912.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

31 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/131.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4