Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes

DLLWL

vsPre-match analysis

St.Louis City

WDWWW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.13 corners/match▲CornersSan Jose Earthquakes · St.Louis City5.88 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	San Jose Earthquakes	St.Louis City	Baseline
Corners	7.13 corners/match	5.88 corners/match	4.78 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1San Jose Earthquakes

0Draws

0St.Louis City

26 Apr 2026St. Louis City — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Jose Earthquakes favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · St.Louis City in 3 · 5 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.44 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.62 xG/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.18 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1614.1 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.4 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.19 shots/match

46.8%Possessionseason · 16/1649.8%

7.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.88 corners/match

4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.5 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/53.2 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Jose Earthquakes25

St.Louis City48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Jose Earthquakes83.3

St.Louis City52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Jose Earthquakes66.7

St.Louis City76.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Jose Earthquakes78.3

St.Louis City75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes31.7

St.Louis City83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes98.3

St.Louis City86.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Jose Earthquakes77.9

St.Louis City71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.65 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match

41.2%Possession5/549.6%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.75 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.3 shots/match

5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match

46.7%Possession10/1050.4%

6.2 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.62 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots16/1614.1 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match

46.8%Possession16/1649.8%

7.13 corners/matchCorners16/165.88 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/53.2 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.89 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.56 goals/match

2.43 xG/match▲Expected goals6/81.57 xG/match

18.5 shots/match▲Shots8/912.8 shots/match

7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.67 shots/match

49.6%Possession8/948.9%

9.5 corners/matchCorners8/96 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/34.33 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4