Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledTQL StadiumPre-match analysis

FC Cincinnati

DLDWW

vsPre-match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes

DLLWL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.5 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible away split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

San Jose Earthquakes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsFC Cincinnati · San Jose Earthquakes13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Cincinnati	San Jose Earthquakes	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	16.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · San Jose Earthquakes in 5 · 8 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/162.13 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.19 goals/match

1.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/131.76 xG/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/13▲1.4 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.8 shots/match

16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12.4 shots/match

5.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/165.69 shots/match

5.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.38 shots/match

48.7%Possessionseason · 16/1646.8%

4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/167.13 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.75 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/41.75 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1688%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati45

San Jose Earthquakes25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati81.1

San Jose Earthquakes83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati13.3

San Jose Earthquakes66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati58.3

San Jose Earthquakes78.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati66.7

San Jose Earthquakes31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati28.3

San Jose Earthquakes98.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati60.4

San Jose Earthquakes77.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.4 goals/match

1.88 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.27 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/541.2%

2.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.4 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.72 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match

5.9 shots/matchShots on target10/105.7 shots/match

47.5%Possession10/1046.7%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored16/162.13 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.19 goals/match

1.8 xG/matchExpected goals14/131.76 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots16/1613.8 shots/match

5.69 shots/matchShots on target16/165.69 shots/match

48.7%Possession16/1646.8%

4.44 corners/matchCorners16/167.13 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards7/41.75 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82.25 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match

2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.19 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/89 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match

50.1%Possession8/844%

4.38 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

13.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.88 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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What the record shows

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible away split

San Jose Earthquakes show a distinct attacking-volume record

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match