PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Snapdragon Stadium
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

San Diego FC won 1–0.

Shots
196
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
1.560.42
Possession
74%26%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots6 shotsSan Diego FC 19 shots, FC Dallas 6 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotSan Diego FC 8 shots, FC Dallas 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.56 xG0.42 xGSan Diego FC 1.56 xG, FC Dallas 0.42 xG
  • Possession74%26%San Diego FC 74%, FC Dallas 26%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersSan Diego FC 9 corners, FC Dallas 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsSan Diego FC 10 fouls, FC Dallas 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsSan Diego FC 0 cards, FC Dallas 2 cards
  • Passes842 passes287 passesSan Diego FC 842 passes, FC Dallas 287 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.7%75.3%San Diego FC 90.7%, FC Dallas 75.3%
  • Shots inside box9 shots3 shotsSan Diego FC 9 shots, FC Dallas 3 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks3 blocksSan Diego FC 8 blocks, FC Dallas 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save7 savesSan Diego FC 1 save, FC Dallas 7 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesSan Diego FC 4 offsides, FC Dallas 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego FC · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Mighten · San Diego FC · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Mighten · San Diego FC · 28′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego FC · 50′ · 0.03 xG · goalAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 68′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedShaq Moore · FC Dallas · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Ingvartsen · San Diego FC · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 7′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 84′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPatrickson Delgado · FC Dallas · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPetar Musa · FC Dallas · 52′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPetar Musa · FC Dallas · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Vazquez · San Diego FC · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 8′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLogan Farrington · FC Dallas · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Ingvartsen · San Diego FC · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 59′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Moreno · FC Dallas · 72′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChristopher McVey · San Diego FC · 78′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 16′ · 0.65 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

San Diego FC: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.61 xG. FC Dallas: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego FC · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: San Diego FC 1.61 xG · FC Dallas 0.45 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

San Diego FC beat FC Dallas 1–0. Recorded in this match (San Diego FC – FC Dallas): shots 19–6, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 1.56–0.42, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for San Diego FC, FC Dallas.

3 days ▲Rest daysSan Diego FC · FC Dallas2.96 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSan Diego FCFC DallasBaseline
Rest days3 days2.96 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

San Diego FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

San Diego FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

San Diego FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.5% ●PossessionSan Diego FC · FC Dallas41.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSan Diego FCFC DallasBaseline
Possession61.5%41.8%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2San Diego FC
1Draws
0FC Dallas
FC Dallas — San Diego FC · Major League Soccer3–3
FC Dallas — San Diego FC · Major League Soccer2–3
San Diego FC — FC Dallas · Major League Soccer5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: San Diego FC favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · FC Dallas in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

San Diego FC17 matchesFC Dallas17 matches
1.82 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.88 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.5 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots17/1711.6 shots/match
4.65 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/174.41 shots/match
61.5% ●Possession17/1741.8%
4.82 corners/match ●Corners17/174.29 corners/match
2.89 cards/matchCards9/62.17 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.5 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Diego FC98.3
FC Dallas5.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Diego FC52.2
FC Dallas46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Diego FC35.0
FC Dallas71.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Diego FC5.0
FC Dallas65.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Diego FC56.7
FC Dallas55.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 68%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Diego FC48.3
FC Dallas18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Diego FC41.6
FC Dallas40.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.96 days

San Diego FC / FC Dallas

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSan Diego FCFC Dallas
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headSan Diego FC — FC Dallas
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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