PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nashville SC won 1–0.

Shots
812
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.611.77
Possession
48%52%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots12 shotsNashville SC 8 shots, Atlanta United 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsNashville SC 3 shots, Atlanta United 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.77 xGNashville SC 0.61 xG, Atlanta United 1.77 xG
  • Possession48%52%Nashville SC 48%, Atlanta United 52%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersNashville SC 4 corners, Atlanta United 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsNashville SC 10 fouls, Atlanta United 13 fouls

Full time

What the match recorded

Nashville SC beat Atlanta United FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nashville SC – Atlanta United FC): shots 8–12, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.61–1.77, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atlanta United FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nashville SC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nashville SC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsNashville SC · Atlanta United FC13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNashville SCAtlanta United FCBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nashville SC
2Draws
1Atlanta United
Atlanta United — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–2
Nashville SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer0–1
Atlanta United — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–1
Atlanta United — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–2
Nashville SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC15 matchesAtlanta United15 matches
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.93 goals/match
0.73 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.6 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.33 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 13.1 shots/match
5.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.07 shots/match
54.1% ●Possession15/1552.9%
4.53 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.7 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nashville SC78.3
Atlanta United68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nashville SC60.6
Atlanta United22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nashville SC92.8
Atlanta United70.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nashville SC21.7
Atlanta United38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC34.1
Atlanta United45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC31.7
Atlanta United55.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nashville SC42.9
Atlanta United39.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
55 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/154.1 days

Nashville SC / Atlanta United

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCAtlanta United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — Atlanta United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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