PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeSoldier FieldFull-time recap
5–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChicago FireSporting Kansas City
Shots17 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.72 xG/match▲0.36 xG/match
Possession71%29%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Sporting Kansas City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Chicago Fire's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.89 goals/match1.65 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting Kansas City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sporting Kansas City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsChicago Fire · Sporting Kansas City6.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChicago FireSporting Kansas CityBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match6.56 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

moderate

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chicago Fire favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Sporting Kansas City in 0 · 3 too close

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.78 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/92.78 goals/match
2.06 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/60.54 xG/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/62.75 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/96.56 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/916.8 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.56 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.78 shots/match
52.3%Possessionseason · 9/944.3%
3.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/92.89 corners/match
5.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/96.56 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.33 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/956%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chicago Fire68.3
Sporting Kansas City8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chicago Fire57.2
Sporting Kansas City1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chicago Fire67.2
Sporting Kansas City12.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chicago Fire51.7
Sporting Kansas City1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire75
Sporting Kansas City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire11.7
Sporting Kansas City5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chicago Fire49.6
Sporting Kansas City18.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.6 goals/match
2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.5 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/56.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/545.8%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.78 goals/match
2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.54 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots9/96.56 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.56 shots/match
52.3%Possession9/944.3%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/92.89 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.78 goals/match
2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.54 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots9/96.56 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.56 shots/match
52.3%Possession9/944.3%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/92.89 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.43 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/55.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/545%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChicago FireSporting Kansas City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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