PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeTQL StadiumFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC CincinnatiNew York Red Bulls
Shots15 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.86 xG/match▲1.44 xG/match
Possession48%52%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Cincinnati, New York Red Bulls. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.65 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Cincinnati, New York Red Bulls.

3 days▲Rest daysFC Cincinnati · New York Red Bulls3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC CincinnatiNew York Red BullsBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsFC Cincinnati · New York Red Bulls15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiNew York Red BullsBaseline
Shots14 shots/match15 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match13 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Cincinnati
0Draws
1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer4–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 3 · 4 too close

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.6 goals/match
2.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102.5 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/71.51 xG/match
1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/72.41 xG/match
14 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲15 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲13 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/105.7 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.9 shots/match
50.3%Possessionseason · 10/1057.5%
5.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106.7 corners/match
3.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/104.9 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/5▲1.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati55
New York Red Bulls88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati77.8
New York Red Bulls70.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati19.5
New York Red Bulls23.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati71.7
New York Red Bulls58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati61.6
New York Red Bulls40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati73.3
New York Red Bulls91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati71.7
New York Red Bulls78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match
2.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
2.15 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.18 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/553.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
12 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
2.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.51 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots10/10▲15 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/105.7 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/1057.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/51.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
2.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.51 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots10/10▲15 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/105.7 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/1057.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/51.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/61.17 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62.67 goals/match
2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals4/51.48 xG/match
15.2 shots/matchShots5/615.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲6.33 shots/match
52%Possession5/656.7%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/67.5 corners/match
—Cards2/2—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/612.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC CincinnatiNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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