Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeSaputo StadiumFull-time recap
10Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCF MontrealNew York City FC
Shots7 shots/match5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match2 shots/match
Expected goals0.95 xG/match0.43 xG/match
Possession36%64%
Corners3 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New York City FC. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New York City FC.

7 daysRest daysCF Montreal · New York City FC2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCF MontrealNew York City FCBaseline
Rest days7 days2.79 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

New York City FC have a visible away split

weak

New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/matchShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

CF Montreal favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · New York City FC in 7 · 4 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/101.9 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/101.6 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/71.18 xG/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/71.47 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/1013.1 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/1012.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/105.6 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/105 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 9/1057.6%
3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/103.8 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/104.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/42.5 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/1011.9 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/1010%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/1080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montreal33.3
New York City FC91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montreal26.7
New York City FC69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montreal35.6
New York City FC49.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montreal25
New York City FC28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal70
New York City FC48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 70%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal11.7
New York City FC18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montreal35.9
New York City FC47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.59 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.05 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots5/514.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55.6 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/560%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
Cards2/1
17 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 10 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/101.9 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/101.6 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals6/71.18 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots9/1013.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target9/105.6 shots/match
46.8%Possession9/1057.6%
3.67 corners/matchCorners9/103.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/42.5 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls9/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 10 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/101.9 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/101.6 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals6/71.18 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots9/1013.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target9/105.6 shots/match
46.8%Possession9/1057.6%
3.67 corners/matchCorners9/103.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/42.5 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls9/1011.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/40.75 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/41.25 goals/match
1.6 xG/matchExpected goals3/2
7.67 shots/matchShots3/49.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target3/43.5 shots/match
39.3%Possession3/459.8%
2.33 corners/matchCorners3/43 corners/match
Cards1/33.33 cards/match
17 fouls/matchFouls3/413.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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