Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeBMO FieldFull-time recap

Toronto FC

WWDDD

1–2Full-time recap

Atlanta United FC

DLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Toronto FC	Atlanta United FC
Shots	9 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.72 xG/match▲	0.61 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	7 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Toronto FC, Atlanta United FC. A second useful context is: Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Toronto FC, Atlanta United FC.

2.73 days▲Rest daysToronto FC · Atlanta United FC2.72 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Toronto FC	Atlanta United FC	Baseline
Rest days	2.73 days	2.72 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.7 goals/match	1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toronto FC favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Atlanta United FC in 2 · 7 too close

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.9 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/7▲1.32 xG/match

0.93 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/71.38 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1011.6 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1011.7 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/104.1 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/104 shots/match

47.7%Possessionseason · 10/1053.8%

5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.1 corners/match

5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/105.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/32.33 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toronto FC41.7

Atlanta United FC75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toronto FC51.1

Atlanta United FC23.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toronto FC55

Atlanta United FC56.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toronto FC48.3

Atlanta United FC15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC48.4

Atlanta United FC56.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 65%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC78.3

Atlanta United FC60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toronto FC60

Atlanta United FC44.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.24 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots5/513.2 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match

52.6%Possession5/552.6%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲1.32 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots10/1011.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

47.7%Possession10/1053.8%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲1.32 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots10/1011.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

47.7%Possession10/1053.8%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 4 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/40.5 goals/match

1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/4▲1.5 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals7/2—

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/410.3 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/43 shots/match

48.4%Possession7/451%

6.14 corners/matchCorners7/46 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls7/414.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.73 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.72 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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