PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 22 Apr 2026, 23:45 UTCFull timeMercedes-Benz StadiumFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtlanta United FCNew England Revolution
Shots21 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.47 xG/match▲1.1 xG/match
Possession46%54%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: New England Revolution's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New England Revolution have a visible away split

weak

New England Revolution's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season8.63 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6 shots/match8.63 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

New England Revolution show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsAtlanta United FC · New England Revolution8.63 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlanta United FCNew England RevolutionBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match8.63 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atlanta United FC favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · New England Revolution in 5 · 4 too close

0.78 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/8▲2 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/8▲1.38 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.27 xG/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.31 xG/match
12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/88.63 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/814.5 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/83.88 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/86 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 9/847.4%
4.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/82.63 corners/match
5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/85 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.67 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/812.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/8▲25%
44%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlanta United FC75
New England Revolution35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlanta United FC24.4
New England Revolution30.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlanta United FC52.8
New England Revolution38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlanta United FC25
New England Revolution8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC54.1
New England Revolution63.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC51.7
New England Revolution1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlanta United FC43.3
New England Revolution19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.22 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
56.8%Possession5/548.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 8 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲2 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1.38 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.27 xG/match
12.2 shots/match▲Shots9/88.63 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.88 shots/match
54.2%Possession9/847.4%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/82.63 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls9/812.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 8 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲2 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1.38 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.27 xG/match
12.2 shots/match▲Shots9/88.63 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.88 shots/match
54.2%Possession9/847.4%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/82.63 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls9/812.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 4 matches
1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/41 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/42.25 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals5/2—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots6/46 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/42.5 shots/match
55.7%Possession6/446.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/43.5 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/413 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 03:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtlanta United FCNew England Revolution
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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