San Diego FC
Major League Soccer · 2026San Diego FC 1–2 Minnesota United · Major League Soccer
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Minnesota United won 1–2.
- Shots
- 17–21
- Shots on target
- 6–7
- Expected goals
- 1.62–1.95
- Possession
- 64%–36%
Full time
What the match recorded
Minnesota United FC beat San Diego 2–1. Recorded in this match (San Diego – Minnesota United FC): shots 17–21, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 1.62–1.95, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
San Diego's recent record differs from the season
moderateSan Diego's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.4 goals/match | 2 goals/match | 1.5 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
The teams have contrasting possession records
moderateSan Diego have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.7 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | San Diego | Minnesota United FC | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 64% | 41.3% | 50.2% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
San Diego have a visible home split
weakSan Diego's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12.5 shots/match | 10.6 shots/match | 12.1 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: San Diego FC favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Minnesota United in 1 · 3 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 7 days
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
San Diego FC / Minnesota United
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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