PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Toyota Stadium

FC Dallas 4–3 Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Dallas won 4–3.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.361.74
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Dallas beat Houston Dynamo 4–3. Recorded in this match (FC Dallas – Houston Dynamo): shots 16–10, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.36–1.74, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Houston Dynamo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Houston Dynamo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Dallas · Houston Dynamo12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC DallasHouston DynamoBaseline
Shots13 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against8.4 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsFC Dallas 16 shots, Houston Dynamo 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsFC Dallas 6 shots, Houston Dynamo 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.36 xG1.74 xGFC Dallas 1.36 xG, Houston Dynamo 1.74 xG
  • Possession55%45%FC Dallas 55%, Houston Dynamo 45%
  • Corners6 corners8 cornersFC Dallas 6 corners, Houston Dynamo 8 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls14 foulsFC Dallas 16 fouls, Houston Dynamo 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsFC Dallas 2 cards, Houston Dynamo 4 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Dallas
2Draws
1Houston Dynamo
FC Dallas — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer0–2
Houston Dynamo — FC Dallas · Major League Soccer1–2
Houston Dynamo — FC Dallas · Major League Soccer1–1
FC Dallas — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer2–0
Houston Dynamo — FC Dallas · Major League Soccer0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Dallas favored in 0 of 9 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 0 · 9 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Dallas5 matchesHouston Dynamo4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/42 goals/match
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/42.25 goals/match
13 shots/matchShots5/412.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/44.25 shots/match
44.2% ●Possession5/441.5%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/4● 6.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/410.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsFC DallasHouston Dynamo
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Dallas — Houston Dynamo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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