Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeTQL StadiumFull-time recap

FC Cincinnati

WLLL

4–3Full-time recap

CF Montreal

LLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Cincinnati	CF Montreal
Shots	15 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.58 xG/match	2.05 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	20 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · CF Montreal in 0 · 9 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/51.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/52.8 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/2—

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/510.4 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/513.8 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/53.6 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/57.2 shots/match

51.2%Possessionseason · 5/547.8%

5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/54.2 corners/match

3.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.5 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/512 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/520%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati61.7

CF Montreal35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati60

CF Montreal30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati26.6

CF Montreal11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati61.7

CF Montreal25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati61.9

CF Montreal34.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati70

CF Montreal18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati64.6

CF Montreal27.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

51.2%Possession5/547.8%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

51.2%Possession5/547.8%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

51.2%Possession5/547.8%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/51.4 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/52.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.7 shots/match▲Shots3/510.4 shots/match

4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/53.6 shots/match

52.3%Possession3/547.8%

4.67 corners/matchCorners3/54.2 corners/match

—Cards2/41.5 cards/match

14.7 fouls/matchFouls3/512 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.73 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4