PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026TQL Stadium

FC Cincinnati 4–3 CF Montréal · Major League Soccer

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Cincinnati won 4–3.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
1.582.05
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Cincinnati beat CF Montreal 4–3. Recorded in this match (FC Cincinnati – CF Montreal): shots 15–18, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.58–2.05, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsFC Cincinnati 15 shots, CF Montréal 18 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsFC Cincinnati 8 shots, CF Montréal 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.58 xG2.05 xGFC Cincinnati 1.58 xG, CF Montréal 2.05 xG
  • Possession46%54%FC Cincinnati 46%, CF Montréal 54%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersFC Cincinnati 2 corners, CF Montréal 2 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls11 foulsFC Cincinnati 20 fouls, CF Montréal 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardFC Cincinnati 4 cards, CF Montréal 1 card

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Cincinnati
1Draws
1CF Montréal
FC Cincinnati — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer3–0
CF Montréal — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–3
FC Cincinnati — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer4–1
CF Montréal — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–1
CF Montréal — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 9 directional metrics · CF Montréal in 0 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati5 matchesCF Montréal5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
51.2% ●Possession5/547.8%
5.8 corners/match ●Corners5/54.2 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsFC CincinnatiCF Montréal
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Cincinnati — CF Montréal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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