PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta United 2–3 Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Real Salt Lake won 2–3.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
54
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Salt Lake beat Atlanta United FC 3–2. Recorded in this match (Atlanta United FC – Real Salt Lake): shots 16–11, shots on target 5–4, possession 62%–38%, corners 4–2. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Atlanta United FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

54% ●PossessionAtlanta United FC · Real Salt Lake39.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtlanta United FCReal Salt LakeBaseline
Possession54%39.3%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsAtlanta United 16 shots, Real Salt Lake 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsAtlanta United 5 shots, Real Salt Lake 4 shots
  • Possession62%38%Atlanta United 62%, Real Salt Lake 38%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersAtlanta United 4 corners, Real Salt Lake 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls4 foulsAtlanta United 12 fouls, Real Salt Lake 4 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsAtlanta United 2 cards, Real Salt Lake 3 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlanta United
0Draws
1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer5–2
Atlanta United — Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlanta United favored in 0 of 9 directional metrics · Real Salt Lake in 0 · 9 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlanta United3 matchesReal Salt Lake3 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 1.67 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 1.33 goals/match
10.7 shots/matchShots3/3▲ 12.3 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 3.67 shots/match
54% ●Possession3/339.3%
3.33 corners/matchCorners3/3● 4 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsAtlanta UnitedReal Salt Lake
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAtlanta United — Real Salt Lake
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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