PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 8 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTCFull timeGillette StadiumFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew England RevolutionHouston Dynamo
Shots9 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.4 xG/match0.83 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners9 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jack Harrison · New England Revolution · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJack Harrison · New England Revolution · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Andrade · Houston Dynamo · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDor Turgeman · New England Revolution · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAgustin Resch · Houston Dynamo · 63′ · 0.03 xG · goalCarles Gil · New England Revolution · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArtur · Houston Dynamo · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCarles Gil · New England Revolution · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDor Turgeman · New England Revolution · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 53′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHéctor Herrera · Houston Dynamo · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPeyton Miller · New England Revolution · 2′ · 0.07 xG · on targetBrooklyn Raines · New England Revolution · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEzequiel Ponce · Houston Dynamo · 16′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPeyton Miller · New England Revolution · 28′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEzequiel Ponce · Houston Dynamo · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 66′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 45′ · 0.25 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

New England Revolution: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG. Houston Dynamo: 13 shots, 7 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Guilherme · Houston Dynamo · 45′Agustin Resch · Houston Dynamo · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: New England Revolution 0.40 xG · Houston Dynamo 0.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New England Revolution's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New England Revolution show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsNew England Revolution · Houston Dynamo13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew England RevolutionHouston DynamoBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match12 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New England Revolution favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 8 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.5 goals/match
1.13 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.07 xG/match
1.37 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.18 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.4 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5 shots/match
5.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 shots/match
50.1%Possessionseason · 16/1644.9%
4.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.38 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲5.06 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/63 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New England Revolution51.7
Houston Dynamo11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New England Revolution13.3
Houston Dynamo56.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New England Revolution48.9
Houston Dynamo70.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New England Revolution15
Houston Dynamo88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution55.9
Houston Dynamo50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution11.7
Houston Dynamo21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New England Revolution12.1
Houston Dynamo44.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲0.95 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
54.4%Possession5/552.2%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
1.06 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.9 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.1 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1045.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.38 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.5 goals/match
1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.07 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.4 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match
50.1%Possession16/1644.9%
4.19 corners/matchCorners16/164.38 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/63 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 8 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/81.63 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/82.13 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals10/8▲1.2 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots10/8▲13.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/8▲5.5 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/845.8%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/83.75 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/810.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

16.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNew England RevolutionHouston Dynamo
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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