PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

Werder Bremen

0–2Full-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen58.3
Borussia Dortmund63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen26.8
Borussia Dortmund71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen33.3
Borussia Dortmund93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen25
Borussia Dortmund13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen69.5
Borussia Dortmund58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen22.2
Borussia Dortmund69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen35.4
Borussia Dortmund69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored1 goals/match5 obs.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.97 xG/match5 obs.1.83 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.2 shots/match5 obs.11.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.8 shots/match5 obs.5 shots/match5 obs.
Possession47.4%5 obs.53.8%5 obs.
Corners4 corners/match5 obs.3.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls9.2 fouls/match5 obs.12.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored1.2 goals/match10 obs.1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match10 obs.0.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals0.87 xG/match9 obs.2.16 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.2 shots/match10 obs.13 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.6 shots/match10 obs.4.7 shots/match10 obs.
Possession51.7%10 obs.54.3%10 obs.
Corners4.2 corners/match10 obs.5.2 corners/match10 obs.
Cards2.6 cards/match5 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.1 fouls/match10 obs.11 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored1.09 goals/match34 obs.2.06 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.76 goals/match34 obs.1 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals0.87 xG/match9 obs.2.16 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.8 shots/match34 obs.13 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match34 obs.4.76 shots/match34 obs.
Possession51.2%34 obs.53.2%34 obs.
Corners4.41 corners/match34 obs.5.26 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.62 cards/match29 obs.1.92 cards/match25 obs.
Fouls9.88 fouls/match34 obs.11.6 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored1.12 goals/match17 obs.1.76 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.82 goals/match17 obs.1.06 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals0.89 xG/match5 obs.1.08 xG/match4 obs.
Shots14.8 shots/match17 obs.11.2 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.41 shots/match17 obs.4.12 shots/match17 obs.
Possession54.1%17 obs.50.7%17 obs.
Corners4.59 corners/match17 obs.3.35 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2.77 cards/match13 obs.2.31 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match17 obs.11.7 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.09 goals/match8th2.06 goals/match86th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.76 goals/match67th1 goals/match3th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason0.87 xG/match3th2.16 xG/match86th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.73 xG/match75th0.99 xG/match3th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12.8 shots/match53th13 shots/match58th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason13.7 shots/match58th10.6 shots/match8th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4 shots/match19th4.76 shots/match69th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason5.12 shots/match75th3.5 shots/match8th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason51.2%58th53.2%64th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.41 corners/match22th5.26 corners/match69th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.97 corners/match64th4.21 corners/match19th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.62 cards/match92th1.92 cards/match36th2.06 cards/match29 / 25
Foulsseason9.88 fouls/match47th11.6 fouls/match81th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason18%42th44%97th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason62%6th94%92th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7.79 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3