PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

Eintracht Frankfurt

2–2Full-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record differs from the season

weak

Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Eintracht Frankfurt75
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Eintracht Frankfurt52.8
VfB Stuttgart89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Eintracht Frankfurt45.4
VfB Stuttgart65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Eintracht Frankfurt2.8
VfB Stuttgart52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt55.5
VfB Stuttgart41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt47.2
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Eintracht Frankfurt48.6
VfB Stuttgart75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricEintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
Goals scored1.4 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.34 xG/match5 obs.1.71 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.6 shots/match5 obs.15.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.6 shots/match5 obs.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession55.2%5 obs.49.4%5 obs.
Corners5.6 corners/match5 obs.7 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match5 obs.9 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricEintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
Goals scored1.3 goals/match10 obs.2.3 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match10 obs.1.7 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.38 xG/match9 obs.1.95 xG/match9 obs.
Shots13 shots/match10 obs.14.9 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.9 shots/match10 obs.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession60.1%10 obs.55.9%10 obs.
Corners5.6 corners/match10 obs.6.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards4 cards/match3 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls9 fouls/match10 obs.9.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricEintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
Goals scored1.79 goals/match34 obs.2.09 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.91 goals/match34 obs.1.44 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.38 xG/match9 obs.1.95 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12 shots/match34 obs.15.2 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4.62 shots/match34 obs.6.03 shots/match34 obs.
Possession55%34 obs.57.6%34 obs.
Corners4.68 corners/match34 obs.5.68 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.19 cards/match27 obs.2 cards/match26 obs.
Fouls10.3 fouls/match34 obs.9.59 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricEintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
Goals scored1.71 goals/match17 obs.2.41 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.59 goals/match17 obs.1.94 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.55 xG/match5 obs.1.94 xG/match4 obs.
Shots13.1 shots/match17 obs.13.6 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target5.29 shots/match17 obs.5.88 shots/match17 obs.
Possession54.4%17 obs.57.2%17 obs.
Corners5.41 corners/match17 obs.5.47 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2.14 cards/match14 obs.1.86 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls10.1 fouls/match17 obs.9.94 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.79 goals/match64th2.09 goals/match92th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.91 goals/match86th1.44 goals/match25th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.38 xG/match31th1.95 xG/match81th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.53 xG/match53th1.53 xG/match58th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12 shots/match31th15.2 shots/match86th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason12.6 shots/match31th12.6 shots/match36th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4.62 shots/match64th6.03 shots/match92th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason4.79 shots/match47th4.74 shots/match42th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason55%75th57.6%86th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.68 corners/match47th5.68 corners/match86th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.53 corners/match36th4.24 corners/match25th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.19 cards/match58th2 cards/match47th2.06 cards/match27 / 26
Foulsseason10.3 fouls/match53th9.59 fouls/match36th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason21%58th32%78th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason91%81th91%81th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.79 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsEintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3