PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025MHPArena

VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 3–1.

Shots
206
Shots on target
95
Expected goals
3.040.54
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 20–6, shots on target 9–5, expected goals 3.04–0.54, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.09 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.67 corners/match ●CornersVfB Stuttgart · Bayer Leverkusen5.52 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Corners5.67 corners/match5.52 corners/match4.64 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots6 shotsVfB Stuttgart 20 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots5 shotsVfB Stuttgart 9 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.04 xG0.54 xGVfB Stuttgart 3.04 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.54 xG
  • Possession49%51%VfB Stuttgart 49%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 51%
  • Corners7 corners6 cornersVfB Stuttgart 7 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsVfB Stuttgart 13 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsVfB Stuttgart 1 card, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMontrell Culbreath · Bayer Leverkusen · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 11′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 56′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIbrahim Maza · Bayer Leverkusen · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 85′ · 0.11 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 5′ · 0.12 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 43′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAleix García · Bayer Leverkusen · 1′ · 0.26 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 24′ · 0.38 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 58′ · 0.47 xG · goalMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 20 shots, 9 on target, 2.76 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 6 shots, 5 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 5′Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 45′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 58′Aleix García · Bayer Leverkusen · 1′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.76 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 0.58 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfB Stuttgart
3Draws
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–4
VfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2
VfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 1 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart33 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen33 matches
2.09 goals/matchGoals scored33/332.03 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.39 goals/match
1.79 xG/matchExpected goals33/331.85 xG/match
15.3 shots/matchShots33/3314.8 shots/match
6.06 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/335.03 shots/match
58.2%Possession33/33● 59.2%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners33/335.52 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards26/262.31 cards/match
9.55 fouls/matchFouls33/338.61 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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