PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig
Shots23 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals4.38 xG/match▲1.14 xG/match
Possession55%45%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.06 goals/match1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.44 corners/match▲CornersBayer Leverkusen · RB Leipzig5.47 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenRB LeipzigBaseline
Corners5.44 corners/match5.47 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
0RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 5 · 7 too close

2.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/321.97 goals/match
1.34 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/321.31 goals/match
2.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/72.06 xG/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/71.45 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲15.9 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3212.1 shots/match
4.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲6.03 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲3.94 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 32/3253.3%
5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325.47 corners/match
3.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/324.34 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/25▲1.44 cards/match
8.59 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/329.47 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲34%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3291%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
RB Leipzig63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen79.6
RB Leipzig84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen67.6
RB Leipzig84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen36.1
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
RB Leipzig16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen75
RB Leipzig80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen59.7
RB Leipzig73.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
2.55 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.18 xG/match
19 shots/match▲Shots5/516.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.2 shots/match
59.6%Possession5/551.8%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
2.43 xG/match▲Expected goals7/72.06 xG/match
17.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1015 shots/match
5.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match
58.7%Possession10/1052.7%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/31.67 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored32/321.97 goals/match
1.34 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.31 goals/match
2.43 xG/match▲Expected goals7/72.06 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots32/32▲15.9 shots/match
4.94 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲6.03 shots/match
59.4%Possession32/3253.3%
5.44 corners/matchCorners32/325.47 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCards26/251.44 cards/match
8.59 fouls/matchFouls32/329.47 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.56 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match
3.39 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.39 xG/match
17.7 shots/match▲Shots16/1614.3 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match
61.4%Possession16/1651.6%
6.5 corners/matchCorners16/164.88 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/121.75 cards/match
8.56 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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