PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 2–1.

Shots
138
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.370.79
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – FC St. Pauli): shots 13–8, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.37–0.79, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.9 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · FC St. Pauli10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots15.9 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.8% ●PossessionRB Leipzig · FC St. Pauli44.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession53.8%44.4%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsRB Leipzig 13 shots, FC St. Pauli 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsRB Leipzig 5 shots, FC St. Pauli 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG0.79 xGRB Leipzig 1.37 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.79 xG
  • Possession70%30%RB Leipzig 70%, FC St. Pauli 30%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersRB Leipzig 3 corners, FC St. Pauli 5 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls9 foulsRB Leipzig 5 fouls, FC St. Pauli 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsRB Leipzig 2 cards, FC St. Pauli 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Arkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrajan Gruda · RB Leipzig · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRômulo · RB Leipzig · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 54′ · 0.04 xG · goalEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 21′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 61′ · 0.08 xG · on targetXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.11 xG · goalAssan Ouédraogo · RB Leipzig · 54′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAbdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 86′ · 0.18 xG · goalMartijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli · 34′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · RB Leipzig · 8′ · 0.48 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 8′ · 0.49 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.64 xG. FC St. Pauli: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.81 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 45′Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig · 54′Abdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 1.64 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.81 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1RB Leipzig
2Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1
RB Leipzig — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–0
FC St. Pauli — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig33 matchesFC St. Pauli33 matches
1.97 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/330.85 goals/match
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/331.73 goals/match
1.98 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/330.87 xG/match
15.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/3310.2 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.39 shots/match
53.8% ●Possession33/3344.4%
5.39 corners/match ●Corners33/334.64 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards25/261.58 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls33/339.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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