Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap

RB Leipzig

WWWWL

2–1Full-time recap

FC St. Pauli

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	RB Leipzig	FC St. Pauli
Shots	11 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.32 xG/match▲	0.52 xG/match
Possession	71%	29%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.85 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · FC St. Pauli10.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	RB Leipzig	FC St. Pauli	Baseline
Shots	15.8 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	11.9 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.8%▲PossessionRB Leipzig · FC St. Pauli44.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	RB Leipzig	FC St. Pauli	Baseline
Possession	53.8%	44.4%	47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0RB Leipzig

1Draws

0FC St. Pauli

27 Jan 2026FC St. Pauli — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0 · 3 too close

1.97 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 33/330.85 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/331.73 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/80.8 xG/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.8 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 33/3310.1 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/3312.2 shots/match

5.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/333.36 shots/match

3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/335.21 shots/match

53.8%Possessionseason · 33/3344.4%

5.39 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.64 corners/match

4.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.03 corners/match

1.44 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/251.56 cards/match

9.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/339.67 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3315%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3361%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig69.4

FC St. Pauli25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig83.3

FC St. Pauli2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig86.1

FC St. Pauli44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig86.1

FC St. Pauli8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig13.9

FC St. Pauli27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig75

FC St. Pauli50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig69.5

FC St. Pauli22.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

2.15 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.95 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.2 shots/match

7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

56.8%Possession5/541.6%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.8 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match

54.3%Possession10/1042.5%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

1.97 goals/match▲Goals scored33/330.85 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/331.73 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.8 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots33/3310.1 shots/match

5.94 shots/match▲Shots on target33/333.36 shots/match

53.8%Possession33/3344.4%

5.39 corners/matchCorners33/334.64 corners/match

1.44 cards/matchCards25/251.56 cards/match

9.33 fouls/matchFouls33/339.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

2.35 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.71 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.71 goals/match

2.54 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.62 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shots17/179.76 shots/match

7.18 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.47 shots/match

55.9%Possession17/1743.7%

5.88 corners/matchCorners17/173.59 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/131.46 cards/match

8.12 fouls/matchFouls17/179.59 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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