Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 3 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LDLDL

1–2Full-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

WWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	FSV Mainz 05
Shots	10 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.86 xG/match	2.35 xG/match▲
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	7 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.84 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.84 goals/match	1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC St. Pauli

1Draws

0FSV Mainz 05

21 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 05 — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 9 · 2 too close

0.84 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.28 goals/match

1.72 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.56 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.63 xG/match

1.87 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.05 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲11.7 shots/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3214 shots/match

3.41 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4 shots/match

5.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.94 shots/match

44.8%Possessionseason · 32/3243.6%

4.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325 corners/match

5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.44 corners/match

1.56 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.52 cards/match

9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3210.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/329%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli25

FSV Mainz 0513.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli2.8

FSV Mainz 0528.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli45.4

FSV Mainz 0540.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3

FSV Mainz 0569.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli27.8

FSV Mainz 0572.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli47.2

FSV Mainz 0563.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli22.2

FSV Mainz 0544.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.75 xG/match

9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

44.8%Possession5/546.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.63 xG/match

9.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match

3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

43.8%Possession10/1041.2%

4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

8.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

0.84 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.28 goals/match

1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.56 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.63 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShots32/32▲11.7 shots/match

3.41 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4 shots/match

44.8%Possession32/3243.6%

4.63 corners/matchCorners32/325 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match

9.75 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.31 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.75 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.73 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots16/1610.1 shots/match

4.31 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.81 shots/match

45.1%Possession16/1641.4%

5.75 corners/matchCorners16/164 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match

9.75 fouls/matchFouls16/1610 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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