FC St. Pauli
Bundesliga · 2025FC St. Pauli 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
1. FSV Mainz 05 won 1–2.
- Shots
- 10–17
- Shots on target
- 3–6
- Expected goals
- 0.84–2.54
- Possession
- 52%–48%
Full time
What the match recorded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – FSV Mainz 05): shots 10–17, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.84–2.54, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season
moderateFC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.6 goals/match | 0.84 goals/match | 1.37 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.88 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.43 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.88 xG · FSV Mainz 05 2.43 xG.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 8 · 1 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 8 days
FC St. Pauli / 1. FSV Mainz 05
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
More football
Related matches
RB Leipzig
1. FC Union Berlin
Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg
VfL WolfsburgTeam rankings in Bundesliga
Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.