PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 3 May 2026, 15:30 UTCFull timeBorussia-ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
Shots12 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.1 xG/match▲0.48 xG/match
Possession51%49%
Corners1 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.03 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia Mönchengladbach show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Borussia Mönchengladbach's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Mönchengladbach · Borussia Dortmund12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match10.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Borussia Mönchengladbach
0Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Mönchengladbach favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 11 · 2 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲2.03 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.13 xG/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.05 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲12.9 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲10.7 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.53 shots/match
5.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲3.5 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 32/3253.2%
3.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325.25 corners/match
4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.28 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/251.92 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲44%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Mönchengladbach41.7
Borussia Dortmund63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Mönchengladbach24
Borussia Dortmund63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Mönchengladbach33.3
Borussia Dortmund93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Mönchengladbach19.4
Borussia Dortmund13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Mönchengladbach33.3
Borussia Dortmund61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Mönchengladbach8.3
Borussia Dortmund69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Mönchengladbach29.8
Borussia Dortmund66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.24 xG/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
49%Possession5/549.6%
2 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.13 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
48.7%Possession10/1051.6%
2.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲2.03 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.13 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots32/32▲12.9 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.53 shots/match
46.3%Possession32/3253.2%
3.81 corners/matchCorners32/325.25 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards26/251.92 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.13 goals/match
1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals4/30.49 xG/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.9 shots/match
4.31 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.81 shots/match
46%Possession16/1650.8%
3.38 corners/matchCorners16/163.25 corners/match
1.42 cards/matchCards12/132.31 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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