Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap

Werder Bremen

WLWLL

3–1Full-time recap

Hamburger SV

WDLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Werder Bremen	Hamburger SV
Shots	13 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.23 xG/match▲	0.54 xG/match
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.3 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Werder Bremen

0Draws

1Hamburger SV

7 Dec 2025Hamburger SV — Werder Bremen · Bundesliga3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 4 · 5 too close

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.1 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.6 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲0.89 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/52.91 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012.1 shots/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3014.5 shots/match

4.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.53 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/304.9 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 30/3045.9%

4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/303.7 corners/match

4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.47 corners/match

2.61 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/272.67 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3020%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen58.3

Hamburger SV36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen39.8

Hamburger SV36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen33.3

Hamburger SV37.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen36.1

Hamburger SV63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen65.2

Hamburger SV88.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen25

Hamburger SV2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen41

Hamburger SV47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲0.89 xG/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

52.6%Possession5/541.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/2—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲0.89 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots10/109.9 shots/match

4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

54.7%Possession10/1044.5%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCards8/72.43 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.1 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.6 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲0.89 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots30/3012.1 shots/match

4.13 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.53 shots/match

52.1%Possession30/3045.9%

4.43 corners/matchCorners30/303.7 corners/match

2.61 cards/matchCards28/272.67 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.8 goals/match

1.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152 goals/match

0.97 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.87 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.9 shots/match

4.53 shots/matchShots on target15/154.33 shots/match

53.4%Possession15/1546.2%

4.4 corners/matchCorners15/153.6 corners/match

2.77 cards/matchCards13/132.92 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match