PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Mewa Arena

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–1.

Shots
812
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.551.23
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1. Recorded in this match (FSV Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt): shots 8–12, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.55–1.23, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.1%PossessionFSV Mainz 05 · Eintracht Frankfurt● 54.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFSV Mainz 05Eintracht FrankfurtBaseline
Possession43.1%54.7%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots12 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots, Eintracht Frankfurt 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots, Eintracht Frankfurt 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.55 xG1.23 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.55 xG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.23 xG
  • Possession30%70%1. FSV Mainz 05 30%, Eintracht Frankfurt 70%
  • Corners5 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners, Eintracht Frankfurt 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls5 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls, Eintracht Frankfurt 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 card1. FSV Mainz 05 2 cards, Eintracht Frankfurt 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Farès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnsgar Knauff · Eintracht Frankfurt · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAyoube Amaimouni Echghouyab · Eintracht Frankfurt · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArthur Theate · Eintracht Frankfurt · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFarès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · Eintracht Frankfurt · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · Eintracht Frankfurt · 70′ · 0.07 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 6′ · 0.10 xG · goalArnaud Kalimuendo · Eintracht Frankfurt · 51′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.14 xG · goalNnamdi Collins · Eintracht Frankfurt · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · Eintracht Frankfurt · 19′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedNathaniel Brown · Eintracht Frankfurt · 20′ · 0.22 xG · goalFarès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 61′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 84′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 37′ · 0.45 xG · on targetNelson Weiper · FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FSV Mainz 05: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.64 xG. Eintracht Frankfurt: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Paul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 6′Paul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 89′Nathaniel Brown · Eintracht Frankfurt · 20′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FSV Mainz 05 1.64 xG · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
2Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga1–1
Eintracht Frankfurt — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–3
Eintracht Frankfurt — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Eintracht Frankfurt in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0527 matchesEintracht Frankfurt27 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.85 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.89 goals/match
1.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.31 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots27/2711.5 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.37 shots/match
43.1%Possession27/27● 54.7%
5.04 corners/match ●Corners27/274.3 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCards25/262 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — Eintracht Frankfurt
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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