Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

LDDDW

2–1Full-time recap

Eintracht Frankfurt

WLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Eintracht Frankfurt
Shots	8 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.55 xG/match▲	1.23 xG/match
Possession	30%	70%
Corners	5 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.85 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.2 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.1%▲PossessionFSV Mainz 05 · Eintracht Frankfurt54.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Eintracht Frankfurt	Baseline
Possession	43.1%	54.7%	47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05

0Draws

1Eintracht Frankfurt

9 Nov 2025Eintracht Frankfurt — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Eintracht Frankfurt in 7 · 6 too close

1.22 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.85 goals/match

1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.89 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2711.5 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11.9 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.37 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.44 shots/match

43.1%Possessionseason · 27/2754.7%

5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.3 corners/match

4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/274.33 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲2 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲26%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0513.9

Eintracht Frankfurt80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0525

Eintracht Frankfurt50.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0533.3

Eintracht Frankfurt52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0558.3

Eintracht Frankfurt2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2

Eintracht Frankfurt51.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0566.7

Eintracht Frankfurt19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0541.7

Eintracht Frankfurt40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match

36.2%Possession5/564%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/42.25 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/109.9 shots/match

5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

39.2%Possession10/1056.6%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards8/92.67 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.22 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.85 goals/match

1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.89 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShots27/2711.5 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.37 shots/match

43.1%Possession27/2754.7%

5.04 corners/matchCorners27/274.3 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCards25/262 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.36 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.5 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.71 shots/match

46.5%Possession14/1456.6%

6.29 corners/matchCorners14/143.64 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards13/132.23 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4