Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap

FC Augsburg

WWWLL

2–5Full-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

WDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Augsburg	VfB Stuttgart
Shots	13 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match	3.77 xG/match▲
Possession	39%	61%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3 goals/match	2.07 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%▲PossessionFC Augsburg · VfB Stuttgart58.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Augsburg	VfB Stuttgart	Baseline
Possession	45.3%	58.6%	47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Augsburg

0Draws

1VfB Stuttgart

9 Nov 2025VfB Stuttgart — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 4 too close

1.22 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲2.07 goals/match

1.85 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲15 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲12.3 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲5.96 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.44 shots/match

45.3%Possessionseason · 27/2758.6%

4.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.37 corners/match

5.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.11 corners/match

2.72 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲2 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲37%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg25

VfB Stuttgart86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg48.1

VfB Stuttgart88

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg33.3

VfB Stuttgart71.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg80.6

VfB Stuttgart41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg86.1

VfB Stuttgart40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg44.4

VfB Stuttgart77.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg56.9

VfB Stuttgart71.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match

42.4%Possession5/561.8%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

3.33 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.1 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.1 shots/match

44.1%Possession10/1061.6%

5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.22 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲2.07 goals/match

1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.8 shots/matchShots27/27▲15 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲5.96 shots/match

45.3%Possession27/2758.6%

4.59 corners/matchCorners27/275.37 corners/match

2.72 cards/matchCards25/252 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls27/279.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.43 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.71 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.5 shots/matchShots14/14▲14 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.93 shots/match

46.5%Possession14/1460.1%

5.21 corners/matchCorners14/145.64 corners/match

2.69 cards/matchCards13/131.85 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4