Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LWWDL

1–2Full-time recap

SC Freiburg

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	SC Freiburg
Shots	11 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.76 xG/match	2.04 xG/match▲
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	3 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC St. Pauli

0Draws

1SC Freiburg

9 Nov 2025SC Freiburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 6 · 6 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.44 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.63 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲12.8 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.6 shots/match

3.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.33 shots/match

5.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.56 shots/match

44.9%Possessionseason · 27/2748.6%

4.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.44 corners/match

4.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4 corners/match

1.56 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/251.72 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.26 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2719%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli19.4

SC Freiburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli5.6

SC Freiburg51.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli51.8

SC Freiburg49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3

SC Freiburg63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli30.6

SC Freiburg22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli30.6

SC Freiburg25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli21.6

SC Freiburg35.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

9 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match

42.8%Possession5/549%

3 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match

42.3%Possession10/1045%

3.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

1.13 cards/matchCards8/81.5 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

0.89 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.44 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.63 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.3 shots/matchShots27/27▲12.8 shots/match

3.44 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.33 shots/match

44.9%Possession27/2748.6%

4.52 corners/matchCorners27/274.44 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards25/251.72 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls27/279.26 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 14 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/141.07 goals/match

1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/142 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.7 shots/matchShots13/1411 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/143.29 shots/match

45.9%Possession13/1444.4%

5.69 corners/matchCorners13/143.93 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards12/131.54 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls13/149.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4