PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 1–2 SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 1–2.

Shots
1115
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
0.762.04
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – SC Freiburg): shots 11–15, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 0.76–2.04, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots15 shotsFC St. Pauli 11 shots, SC Freiburg 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsFC St. Pauli 5 shots, SC Freiburg 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.76 xG2.04 xGFC St. Pauli 0.76 xG, SC Freiburg 2.04 xG
  • Possession49%51%FC St. Pauli 49%, SC Freiburg 51%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersFC St. Pauli 3 corners, SC Freiburg 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls6 foulsFC St. Pauli 9 fouls, SC Freiburg 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardFC St. Pauli 1 card, SC Freiburg 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathias Rasmussen · FC St. Pauli · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 55′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCyriaque Irié · SC Freiburg · 78′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 48′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMathias Rasmussen · FC St. Pauli · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 18′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 39′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 87′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 69′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 65′ · 0.18 xG · goalJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 3′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 24′ · 0.27 xG · goalYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 44′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 78′ · 0.56 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.76 xG. SC Freiburg: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 24′Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 65′Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.76 xG · SC Freiburg 2.07 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC St. Pauli
0Draws
2SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1
FC St. Pauli — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–1
SC Freiburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli27 matchesSC Freiburg27 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.63 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲ 1.51 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 12.7 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.33 shots/match
44.9%Possession27/27● 48.6%
4.52 corners/match ●Corners27/274.44 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards25/251.72 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls27/279.22 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — SC Freiburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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